Posts Tagged ‘Rasmussen’

“If There’s Hope, It Lies in the Polls”

Thursday, July 9th, 2009

I wonder how many people will understand the political literary reference I made in the title of this post? More on that later, but what I am describing is the hope that is brightening the breasts of many of those poor defeated souls on the right who are now clinging to an arbitrary measurement devised by a pollster who has consistently had poll results that skew to the right as the “evidence” that the country is “moving to the right” and ostensibly away from President Obama and the Democrats.

Of course I’m talking about the Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll and the bogus “Presidential Approval Index” that Rasmussen has devised that current shows the President at “Minus 8.”

Reading that figure would lead many to believe that 54% of the public disapproved of the job he is doing with only 46% in favor, right? Wrong, because, you see, what Rasmussen has done is to subtract those who “strongly disapprove” of the President’s job performance from those who “strongly approve.” This “index” does not consider those who either simply approve or disapprove.

First off, the subjective nature of the word “strongly” makes polling based upon this kind of judgment suspect in my mind.

Second, the fact is that even Rasmussen’s poll shows that a majority approve of the President’s job performance.

Third, as I have said before, Rasmussen’s poll numbers are way skewed to the right compared to other pollsters. The RCP average of polls has the President’s overall approval/disapproval rating at 56.3% – 38.5%.

Fourth, whereas approval ratings can be leading indicators as predictive agents for future elections, we are still almost 3 and a half years away from the next Presidential election, so these polls are mostly meaningless in terms of analyzing them to assess the President’s “vulnerability” next time out.

So we have a pollster who skews right making up an index that means nothing especially given the placement of his data alongside others, and we have a group of people on the right misinterpreting the significance of those same flawed numbers in an effort to “prove” to themselves that they were right all along and that the country was somehow “mislead” into voting for the President and are now “seeing the light,” right?

The good news is that most people, if asked to comment about this “significant drop in the President’s popularity” and being asked if they “regretted voting for the President (which is another way the right wingnuts like to cheer themselves up)” would likely respond to the person asking them this question by saying: “What the fuck are you talking about?”

So, take heart all you Fox News devotees. You have three and a half more years to cry yourselves to sleep at night with made up numbers.

Then you will probably have to come up with some new ones to hold you until 2016…

by Writeside