Posts Tagged ‘Predictions’


Monday, November 3rd, 2008

Because I think everyone who dares to write often about electoral politics ought to be required to make some rudimentary predictions by which people can look back and determine their level of competence to dispense analysis, and because I’m all about holding myself to my own standards, I present to you my soon to be much heralded and widely regarded (or not so much) 2008 election predictions.

Looking at the undercard first, there are some Gubernatorial races around the country this year. Mitch Daniels (R) looks certain to get re-elected in Indiana, as will John Hoeven (R-ND), Jon Huntsman Jr. (R-UT), Jim Douglas (R-VT), Jack Markell (D-DE), Brian Schweitzer (D-MT), John Lynch (D-NH), Joe Manchin (D-WV), and I think Christine Gregoire(D) will also win a more narrow re-election in Washington. In Missouri, it looks like Attornery General Jay Nixon(D), is going come away with a crushing victory, but the most interesting race is arguably in North Carolina. Mike Easley was re-elected in 2004 by 13%, and his LT. Governor, Beverly Perdue (D), is running to fill his term limited seat. She has a very narrow polling lead over Pat McCrory, Mayor of Charlotte, and ultimately I think the same demographic trends that have Barack Obama leading slightly in the state will put Perdue over the top as well.

In the House of Representatives, I see the Democrats netting a gain of approximately 27 seats, and picking up 8 in the Senate. I see Democratic Senate candidates picking up seats in New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, New Mexico, Minnesota, Alaska, Oregon, and just barely missing out on Roger Wicker’s seat in Mississippi as well as Mitch McConnell’s in Kentucky.

And that leaves, of course, the main event. I think we all expect that Obama will carry all of Kerry’s 2004 states (including Pennsylvania) and as a general rule if someone is averaging 50% or better at this point in a state, I think it’s hard for them to be overcome. So that moves Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, and Virginia into Obama’s category, easily giving him the electoral college majority. I think he’ll also win Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Nevada, and, on the strength of his ground game (and likely undersampling of African Americans in “likely voter” models) North Carolina and Indiana.

So there you go. My 2008 election picks, sure to make me look like a genious, or run me out of blogging forever.