The Bounce Endeth

As I said last week, people worrying about tracking polls and John McCain’s lead should have remembered that they had just been talking about convention bounces, and therefore realized we were just in the midst of McCain’s (not all that impressive) bounce. With the bounce seemingly over, it’s worth comparing Obama and McCain’s VP/convention bounces against each other to flesh out the race now.

Obama’s bounce took him from a pre-convention nadir of 45.5% to a post-convetion peak of 48.8% according to Real Clear Politics’ poll average. Additionally, there were 12 days from nadir to peak. McCain went from 42.8% to 48% over 6 days. So McCain saw a slightly larger overall bounce, although it lasted only half as long as Obama’s. Additionally, Obama’s peak represents a point in polling average McCain has yet to crack, period. In other words, Obama is still able to achieve higher levels of support in polling than McCain. Finally, McCain’s current avergage is 45.3%, or just under  Obama’s pre-convention low point. So the conventions have wrung out of the polling, the race has readjusted back to, mostly, the way it was, and John McCain’s support is realtively low in its own right.

Also, via Matt, it appears that Sarah Palin is taking a big hit in her overall net favorable ratings.

There’s a few different explanations for this, but I’d imagine the simplest is that the public has noticed the growing narrative that Palin has trouble with the truth, and is responding in kind. If the same is true for McCain, it could also explain his rather quick drop off from the peak of his convention bounce.