More on a New Electoral Map

Sifting through the post mortems on the GOP loss in MS-01 we find evidence of what I was alluding to in talking about a new electoral map in an article in today’s New York Times:

“The result in Mississippi, and what Republicans said was a surge in African-American turnout, suggested that Mr. Obama might have the effect of putting into play Southern seats that were once solidly Republican, rather than dragging down Democratic candidates.”

Those will be the conditions that could allow Senator Obama to win in Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, Arkansas and Louisiana, and if things so really well, in South Carolina, Georgia, and maybe Mississippi:  low GOP turnout because their candidate is perceived of as being a RINO , and extraordinarily high turnout among Democrats, particularly African Americans who will vote 99.9 to .1 for Obama over McCain.

If that happened in this solid red district in Mississippi, look for that same dynamic to play out in the Fall as well.

McCain’s staff said that his campaign won’t be effected by that, but we all know that it will.  I might just prove to be right about that new map yet.

Oh, and I just love this from later in the article:

“Representative Tom Cole of Oklahoma, the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, did not go as far as his predecessor, Mr. Davis, in advising members to step away from Mr. Bush. But Mr. Cole, facing growing restiveness among Republicans about the party leadership, acknowledged the tumult in his party’s ranks and suggested that his committee would look for a change in strategy.

“When you lose three of these in a row you have to get beyond campaign tactics and take a hard look and ask if there is something wrong with your product,” he said.”

It’s a little late to look at their product – don’t you think?