Howard Wolfson, Still a Jackass

I guess the “we’re winning if you only count the contests we won” meme went out the window when the primaries ended, but Wolfson’s still giving it his best. Now the idea is that, had the John Edwards story broken last fall, Hillary would have won Iowa and cruised to the nomination.

I don’t buy this for a second, and Nate pretty much sums up why. But how’s this for an alternate theory? If the Edwards story would have broken earlier, Obama would have won Iowa by somewhere between 5% and 10%, and then won a slightly narrower victory in New Hampshire effectively ending Hillary’s candidacy less than a week into the contest, at the very least putting her out after Super Tuesday.

For starters, New Hampshire was a much tighter result than Iowa, with Clinton only securing a 2% margin over Obama. Exit polls provide for sort of a sketchy guidepost to work with, but simplistically speaking Edwards tended to perform best in demographic samples that also preferred Obama over Clinton. It’s admittedly sketchy, but working with such a narrow margin, it’s at least much more likely than Wolfson’s theory.