More Stupid Journalists

Adamn Nagourney, who was recently miffed that the Obama campaign was upset over his really dumb ass column about race, wonders why Obama isn’t “doing better:”

And it is back again as he returns from an overseas trip that even Republicans have described as politically triumphant. In this case, the question is why, given how sour Americans feel about President George W. Bush and the Republican Party, about the Iraq war and the ailing economy that Bush will leave to his successor and about the perception that Obama is running such a better campaign than Senator John McCain, the senator from Illinois is not doing even better in national opinion polls?

Well Adam, it’s something I like the call the “law of big fucking numbers.” As you go on to note, Obama is currently leading by about 7 points on average. To put that in context, Bush’s landslide over Dukakis in 1988 was an 8% popular vote win, and Reagan’s 49 state landslide in 1984 was, roughly, a 10% popular vote margin. So simply put, when you’re dealing with a sample the size of the voting electorate, seemingly small margins represent really big discrepancies. 7% would be the biggest non-incumbent win since 1988. Not exactly a small feat, but we must be poo-pooing Obama’s standing to keep people interested. If they knew the extent to which McCain ws being dominated at the moment, they might lose interest.