On November

I’ve got a full piece up on the differing general election outlooks of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, namely:

A common tendency among political campaigns, and especially political pundits, is to constantly fight the election-that-was all over again. Our electoral perspectives are understandably filtered through the most recent concrete prisms we can identify tangibly, and we adjust our behavior accordingly. This is especially true of candidates from parties coming off of losing campaigns. Bob Dole clearly counted on the fallacious belief that Ross Perot had thrown the 1992 election, and that with a decreased Perot factor he’d beat Bill Clinton fairly easily. John Kerry took a very simple strategy into 2004; win every state Gore carried in 2000 plus Florida (or Ohio).

Read the rest here.