Margins

Here’s an interesting summation of polling data from the AP:

Yet Obama’s performance with these voters in the primaries doesn’t necessarily mean he’d do poorly with them in the general election, assuming he nails down the last few convention delegates he needs to win the nomination.

Polls this month show the Illinois senator leading McCain among women, running even with him among Catholics and suburbanites and trailing him with people over age 65. Results vary by poll for those without college degrees. And though Obama trails decisively with a group that has shunned him against Clinton _ whites who have not completed college _ he’s doing about the same with them as the past two Democratic presidential candidates.

Now, aside from the obvious told-you-so about primary results not translating universally to the general election, what stands out to me is Obama running “about the same” as Kerry and Gore with white voters without a college degree. Now, as Yglesias points out, they lost, but they lost narrowly. So if Obama holds the line and compensates elsewhere, increased African American turnout for example, then he goes over the 2004 model top.